A Third Way

Two nights ago, AJ Burnett got absolutely lit up by the Phillies, giving up 6 runs in 2 innings. This was on three days rest, so it was treated as a big shock by the NY media. Of course, about 25% of Burnett's starts are really bad and you never really know what you are going to get. After all, last year he did go 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA on 3-days rest pitching in Toronto. There has been a lot of second guessing as to what Girardi should've done with the pitching rotation and it has centered around two choices:

1) Start Chad Gaudin in Game 5, who hadn't started in over a month and then have AJ and Pettite on full rest start Games 6 and 7 with CC coming out of the pen
2) Stick with the 3-man rotation

But there was a third option, that was of course never considered publicly: treat Game 5 like a spring training game. Why not take advantage of NY's extremely deep bullpen? Have a lineup that looks like:

Two innings of Gaudin...and then completely blowing Charlie Manuel's mind by going:
2IP: Joba
2IP: Robertson
2IP: Hughes
1IP: Rivera
(with doses of Marte and Coke sprinkled in as needed)

I would prefer not to start Gaudin, but Aceves instead. I would just start Gaudin so the trap could be sprung. Gaudin had no place starting against the Phillies anyway; he is absolutely killed by left-handed batting who hit 100 points of OPS higher against him than RHB. The Phillies left-handers would have destroyed him. If he couldn't handle left-handers in the caverns of Petco he definitely couldn't handle them in the bandbox of Philly.

Each of these relievers would be dealing HEAT and it would be a glory to watch.

This couldn't have been any more ineffective than Burnett and the bullpen would be rested due to the off-day in time for Game 6 if it were needed. But it's unfortunate that managers are to risk averse and would rather fail in old-fashioned ways than running the risk of failing in an original way and being crucified for it.

"An American League Offense in the National League"

I forget who said that, but it seems to be a common theme in discussing the upcoming Phils-Yanks World Series. It also sounds pretty catchy. But it's by no means true.

The Phillies are, without a doubt, the hardest hitting team in the National League. They led the league in runs scored, homers, slugging, and isolated slugging. They're the only team with 4 players who've hit 30+ homers. In the NLCS they outscored the Dodgers 35 to 16, averaging 7 runs per game. ESPN analyst John Kruk, argued on air that the Yankees just won't be able to handle the Phillies "offensive onslaught" and would lose in 6. But are they really an American League caliber offense? Not really. When you consider that the Yankees beat two better hitting teams to get to the Fall Classic the argument that falls apart. The Phillies' knocking the Dodgers out of the park had as much to do with Torre's horrible starting pitcher selection as it did the Phillies' offensive capabilities. I wouldn't even call the Phils an AL East quality offense.

In OPS, the Phillies are fifth in the majors, behind the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Rockies. In runs scored they're fourth, behind the Yankees, Angels, and Sox. And they only scored three more runs than the Twins. And for all the power the Phillies lineup has, the Yankees hit 20 more homers and are, I believe, the only team in history with seven players with 20+ home runs. I won't deny their a great hitting team, but in the AL they'd be nothing special.

The Phillies run total is drastically inflated by the fact that they got to face the Nationals (5.02 team ERA) and the Mets (4.46 team ERA) and feast on their terrible pitching 18 times each. Against the Nats, the worst throwing team in MLB, they scored 116 of their 820 runs, almost 1/7th of their total runs even though they only played 1/9th of their games against them. The Phillies team OPS was .880 against the Nats, 100 points higher than their regular season average.

The most damning proof of this is looking at the third-order runs scored from Baseball Prospectus adjusted standings. These take into account the quality of opponents' pitching. The Yankees led the majors in adjusted equivalent runs, with 948. The Phillies scored 791 adjusted equivalent runs, which is good for second in the NL after the Rockies. But it would be good for 5th in the AL East, behind the Yanks, Rays, Sox, and Jays(!). It's 14 runs fewer than the Twins, and 87 runs fewer than the Angels. If they were in the AL, the Phillies would be tied for 8th with the Rangers in adjusted equivalent runs. That puts them...right in the middle of the road in terms of offensive power.

The Phillies have a strong offense, but there's no denying that the Yankees are stronger. It's time for analysts to stop pretending they're a more slugging team than the Yanks.