Why it's Bad to Face Vlad

First off, few things make me happier than:
1) A Yankees sweep
2) Red Sox getting swept

Except of course:
1) A Yankees sweep in the ALDS
2) Red Sox getting swept in the ALDS

Oh and the Giants absolutely stomped all over the Raiders. But that was their game to win, just like Game 3 was the Sox's to win. In what may have been Terry Francona's Grady Little moment, the wheels completely came off in the ninth inning. So I'd just like to thank the Halos and the Boston manager for vanquishing the Sox in the ALDS.

With a one-run lead, two outs in the bottom of the ninth, and first base empty, Jonathon Papelbon intentionally walked Torii Hunter to face former MVP Vladmir Guerrero. I didn't think a team would ever choose to face Guerrero with the bases loaded but that is besides the point. Then again, this is by far the worst year in Vlad's career. He put up a line of .295/.334/.460 and a miserable 50 RBIs after 10 years of reliably putting up an OPS >.900 to go with 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.

Even in this terrible off-year, Guerrero and his .334 OBP would get the tying run in 1/3rd of the time. If he was performing at his career levels, he would get it in 38.6% of the time. With Ellsbury at normal depth, Vlad would've flown and the game would have ended then. But with the center fielder playing no-doubles defense in deep center field, Vlad hit a fastball over the middle of the plate right to shallow center, plating two runners and giving the Angels the lead. Fuentes got the save and the Angels advanced to the ALCS.

I'll never understand why the Red Sox would choose to face Guerrero or why they would play to prevent Vlad from getting to second instead of to first, since what base Vlad ends up at makes no difference in the total number of runs scored. Torii Hunter and his .366 OBP made an out in 63.4% of his plate appearances this season. Why face someone who makes an out in a lower percentage of his plate appearances over him? And it isn't a small difference, Vlad's career OBP is .386 compared to Hunter's .330. John Farrell and Terry Francona were certainly aware of this. For it to have been the correct move to walk Hunter, Boston must have believed that the likelihood of Vlad making an out with the bases loaded was significantly greater than Hunter making one with runners on 2nd and 3rd. If you look at their OBPs (and their comparative ability to drive in runs), it wasn't. It was a dumb decision and they paid the appropriate price.

Also, Papelbon's appearance also demonstrated the meaningless of ERA. When he came in the 8th, TBS noted that he hadn't been charged with an earned run in 26 postseason innings...and Papelbon promptly allowed two inherited runners to score before making an out, raising that streak to 27. And if Ellsbury had been playing at normal depth, that streak would've continued to 28. His ERA is by no means an accurate measure of his performance.

Great day for a New York fan. Looking forward to the ALCS with the Angels.