Friday, December 25, 2009

Week 16 NFL Picks: Now from Seoul

I've been living in Seoul for the last two weeks, so I haven't been able to watch any games except for my Giants absolutely destroying the Redskins and looking like a playofff team again. Anyway here are my picks. I told someone I could go 12/16 this week, so hopefully there aren't too many upsets:


12/25: San Diego at Tennessee: SD is always good in December and beat the Titans the last time they faced each other.

12/27: Seattle at Green Bay: Seattle isn't doing anything against the GB defense. If they couldn't stop Josh Freeman, Aaron Rodgers will tear them apart.

Oakland at Cleveland: Terrible terrible matchup. Can't like either team. One of the at least four I will get wrong.

Cincinnati at KC. Bengals will roll. Larry Johnson won't touch the ball enough to get revenge on his own team but ~50yards from him wouldn't be surprising. Bengals win by two touchdowns to beat the spread.

At Atlanta v. Buffalo: This is a Buffalo team that has made it tight against the Patriots and an Atlanta team that hasn't done anything recently. Michael Turner won't be playing either. They don't the spread.

Houston at Miami: I can totally see everything happening in the Jets favor in order to set up:

Jets At Indianapolis: It doesn't matter if the Colts treat this like a preseason game; the Jets won't beat the spread.

Carolina at Giants: Giants will absolutely roll. Carolina isn't good at the big play (NY's biggest weakness) and they just lost their starting QB.

Tampa Bay at at New Orleans: Who dat will crush whoever they start.

Jacksonville at NEP: Jville beats the spread because they can win on the road.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: Big Ben passes for either ~125 yards or ~350 yards. No doubt they beat the spread.

Denver at Philly: The Broncos are just broken right now. This loss won't hurt them too much in the WC race though.

STL at Arizona: A 14 point spread might be giving way too much credit to the Rams.

Detroit at SF49ers: I <3 Alex Smith. I'm not sure they beat the 13 point spread but it won't ever feel like a close game.

Dallas at Washington: It was SOOOOOOO close to an upset the last time these teams faced eachother. Also Dallas can't run the ball and the only thing the Skins can do is defend against the pass.

edit:

The MNF game will be Bears > Vikings. Forgot about that one.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Week 13 NFL Picks

My predicted winner in bold:

12/3: Jets at Buffalo: This isn't really even a home game for Buffalo, since they're playing at Toronto. TO will be covered by Darrell Reeves the whole game and shouldn't be expected to produce. It must be nice for CFL fans to not have to endure such a long football drought though.

12/6 Games:

Denver at KC: After watching what the Broncos did to my Giants, KC even putting up a fight is unforeseeable. Broncos easily beat the 4.5 point spread.

Pittsburgh at Oakland: There is one thing Oakland does well, and that's defend against the pass. The Steelers are 15th in the NFL in rushing YPG and overly dependent on the pass. Oakland sucks, but they will beat the overly generous 14.5 point spread.

Houston at Jacksonville: I have know what is going on with David Garrard. I drafted him as my backup QB in most leagues but he has just been playing like the football is coated in vaseline. Unless MJD goes absolutely nuts I don't see them doing much against Houston.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: No reason to believe the Colts unbeaten streak will end here.

Philadelphia at Atlanta: An Atlanta team without Michael Turner AND Matt Ryan isn't going to be doing too much against the Philadelphia D. Philly easily beats the spread.

New Orleans at Washington: Considering how badly the Redskins did during their streak of playing teams without a win, they probably won't fare much better against a team with 12 of them. In all fairness, the Redskins do have the top-rated pass defense in the NFL...too bad they can't do anything else. 45 minute game for Brees, Pierre Thomas, and the rest of the Saints' starters.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: It's amazing what rookie Josh Freeman has done so far. However, he's due for an implosion and I can see it coming against the Panthers, whose defense is ranked third in passing yards allowed, in a three-way tie for seventh in interceptions, and tied for 10th with elite defense like the Steelers and Ravens for passing TDs allowed. Furthermore, DeAngelo Williams always turns it on against the Bucs too, rushing for 152 yards against them in their first meeting, and in their two 2008 games he rushed for 213 yards while averaging 7.1 yards per carry.

St. Louis At Chicago: Jay Cutler has to have a good game at some point, right? Even if it's against the team with the 30th worst passing defense in the NFL it stills count. St. Louis will be his slumpbuster as the Bears beat the spread.

Detroit at Cincinnati: I won't be surprised if Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson get more yards than the entire Detroit offense combined.

San Diego at Cleveland: The only real question about this game is if the Chargers care about padding LT's stats enough to leave him on the field past halftime.

San Francisco at Seattle: Alex Smith is the real deal, coming off a career game, and going up against a banged up defense. 49ers roll.

Minnesota at Arizona. Warner will be sitting and Arizona doesn't play well at home.

Dallas at NY Giants: Do-or-die for the Giants and they know it. They'll find their rhythm as Jacobs rushes for 100+ yards, as he has done in two of the last three Cowboys-Giants meetings (and he rushed for 95 in the third).

New England at Miami: The Dolphins have been a big surprise and the Pats' defense has been pretty atrocious, which I guess justifies the 3.5 point spread and Belichick's hatred of his defensive unit. Regardless, I can't see Miami and their lack of a passing threat making this a close game.

12/7 MNF Game:

Baltimore at Green Bay: The Ravens don't play well on the road and Aaron Rodgers is a beast. A beast I tell you!